Federal Reserve set to make interest rate decision days after election of Trump
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(WASHINGTON) — The Federal Reserve on Thursday will announce its latest decision on the direction of interest rates, setting the path for borrowing costs just two days after the victory of President-Elect Donald Trump.
The Fed cut its benchmark interest rate a half of a percentage point in September, dialing back its yearslong fight against inflation and delivering relief for borrowers saddled with high costs.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), a policymaking body at the Fed, has forecast further interest rate cuts.
By the end of 2024, interest rates will fall another half of a percentage point from their current level of between 4.75% and 5%, according to FOMC projections. Interest rates will drop another percentage point over the course of 2025, the projections further indicated.
The central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates by another quarter of a percentage point when it meets on Thursday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment.
In recent months, the U.S. has inched closer to a “soft landing,” in which inflation returns to normal and the economy averts a recession.
Government data released last week showed robust economic growth over a recent three-month period, alongside a continued cooldown of inflation.
U.S. hiring slowed in October, but fallout from hurricanes and labor strikes likely caused an undercount of the nation’s workers, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data on Friday showed.
Since 2021, the Fed has sought to rein in inflation with elevated interest rates. Even after the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest in September, it still stands at a historically high level.
Inflation has cooled dramatically from a peak of about 9% in 2022, hovering right near the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%.
The trajectory of inflation could shift in the coming months. Trump’s proposals of heightened tariffs and the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants are widely expected to raise consumer prices, experts previously told ABC News.
To be sure, the Fed says it bases its decisions on economic conditions and operates as an independent government body.
When asked previously about the 2024 election at a press conference in Washington, D.C., in December, Powell said, “We don’t think about politics.”
The election of Trump appears to have delivered a boost for the stock market. The U.S. stock market soared at the open of trading on Wednesday, just hours after Trump declared victory.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed more than 1,300 points, amounting to a nearly 3% rise in the index. The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq each jumped more than 2%.
Shares of Tesla, the electric vehicle company headed by Trump ally Elon Musk, spiked about 14.5% in early trading on Wednesday.
(NEW YORK) — If you’ve opened Instagram over the last few days, you’ve likely seen a post that begins with the words “Goodbye Meta AI.”
The post, most often shared on Instagram stories, features black-and-white text warning of “legal consequences” and the use of artificial intelligence by Meta, the parent company of Instagram, Threads and Facebook.
“If you do not post at least once it will be assumed you are okay with them using your information and photos,” the text reads, in part. “I do not give Meta or anyone else permission to use any of my personal data, profile information or photos.”
Since early September, the message has been shared widely, even though it is a hoax.
More recently, when the message is shared on Instagram stories, it is blocked out by a warning that the message contains “false information.”
The warning directs users to a fact-check on the website LeadStories.com.
“Does posting a statement ensure that users of Meta services will not have their data used in Meta’s artificial intelligence training? No, that’s not true: Posting the viral statement, or any other statement, doesn’t mean that Meta will not use that data for AI training, but users in Europe can object via a form in their account settings,” the fact-check reads. “The statement is an example of “copypasta,” text containing information that’s often not true but which is repeatedly copied and pasted online.”
Meta describes generative AI as, “a type of artificial intelligence that can create new content when a person or business gives it instructions or asks it a question.”
When Meta announced its new generative AI features last year, the company detailed how and why it uses data for AI purposes.
According to the company, it pulls data for AI from users’ public posts, their interactions with AI features and publicly-available information from places like databases and search engines.
“We use public posts and comments on Facebook and Instagram to train generative AI models for these features and for the open-source community,” reads Meta’s public privacy policy. “We don’t use posts or comments with an audience other than Public for these purposes.”
The company does not appear to pull information from data for generative AI from user accounts that are set to private.
Meta did not reply to ABC News’ request for comment.
(NEW YORK) — Tens of thousands of U.S. dockworkers are set to walk off the job early Tuesday morning, clogging dozens of ports along the East and Gulf coasts and potentially raising consumer prices ahead of the holiday season.
“Moments ago, the first large-scale eastern dockworker strike in 47 years began at ports from Maine to Texas, including at the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey,” New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said in a statement Tuesday.
“In preparation for this moment, New York has been working around the clock to ensure that our grocery stores and medical facilities have the essential products they need,” Hochul added.
In a statement to ABC News early Tuesday, the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) confirmed the union’s first coastwide strike in nearly 50 years was underway. The statement said that “tens of thousands of ILA rank-and-file members” started to set up picket lines at shipping ports up and down the Atlantic and Gulf coasts as of 12:01 am.
“We are prepared to fight as long as necessary, to stay out on strike for whatever period of time it takes, to get the wages and protections against automation our ILA members deserve,” ILA President Harold Daggett said.
The ports account for more than half of the nation’s container imports, facilitating the transport of everything from toys to fresh fruit to nuclear reactors, JPMorgan senior equity analyst Brian Ossenbeck said in a report shared with ABC News.
A prolonged work stoppage of several weeks or months could rekindle inflation for some goods and trigger layoffs at manufacturers as raw materials dry up, experts said.
“A strike would be very, very disruptive,” said Jason Miller, a professor of supply-chain management at Michigan State University who closely tracks imports, told ABC News.
“You can’t take all this freight and either send it to other ports or put it on airplanes,” Miller added. “There is no plan B.”
The ILA, the union representing East Coast and Gulf Coast dockworkers, is seeking higher wages and a ban on the use of some automated equipment.
“ILA longshore workers deserve to be compensated for the important work they do keeping American commerce moving and growing,” the ILA told ABC News in a statement on Monday. “Meanwhile, ILA dedicated longshore workers continue to be crippled by inflation due to USMX’s unfair wage packages.”
The U.S. Maritime Alliance, or USMX, an organization bargaining on behalf of the dockworkers’ employers, declined to respond to an ABC News request for comment.
President Joe Biden retains the power to prevent or halt a strike under the 1947 Taft-Hartley Act. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce sent a letter to Biden on Monday urging the White House to intervene, which it has previously said it will not do. The White House told ABC News in a statement that it has been in contact with both the union and management in recent days.
“This weekend, senior officials have been in touch with USMX representatives urging them to come to a fair agreement fairly and quickly – one that reflects the success of the companies. Senior officials have also been in touch with the ILA to deliver the same message,” White House spokesperson Robyn Patterson said.
A prolonged East Coast and Gulf Coast port strike could moderately increase prices for a range of goods, experts told ABC News. That upward pressure on prices would result from a shortage of products caught up in the supply chain blockage, leaving too many dollars chasing after too few items, they added.
Food products are especially vulnerable to an uptick in prices, since food could spoil if suppliers sent the products ahead of time to minimize the strike impact, as they have done for some other goods, Adam Kamins, a senior director of economic research at Moody’s Analytics, told ABC News.
Additionally, a significant share of the nation’s imported auto parts pass through the ports impacted by a potential strike, which could cause an increase in vehicle prices if the strike persists.
Price increases have slowed dramatically from a peak in 2022, but inflation remains higher than the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%. A strike could prevent further progress, according to Kamins.
“We’re not talking about prices skyrocketing by any means, but I think it halts the momentum we’ve had over the last year or so getting inflation back in the bottle,” he said.
In 2002, a strike among workers at West Coast ports lasted 11 days before then-President George W. Bush invoked the Taft-Hartley Act and ended the standoff. However, the last time East Coast and Gulf Coast workers went on strike, in 1977, the work stoppage lasted seven weeks.
Tuesday’s potential work stoppage follows high-profile strikes undertaken last year by auto workers as well as Hollywood writers and actors. Most recently, 33,000 Boeing workers walked off the job in early September, demanding better pay and retirement benefits.
“Trade unions all over the country have been going out on strike,” Sriram Narayanan, a professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University, told ABC News. “We’re seeing that happen now at the ports.”
Ahead of the historic strike, the president of the Teamsters labor union, Sean O’Brien, released a letter of solidarity to the International Longshoreman’s Association, saying, “The International Brotherhood of Teamsters, including our members in the freight industry, stand in full solidarity with the International Longshoremen’s Association as they fight for a fair and just contract with the ocean carriers represented by USMX.”
“Don’t forget –Teamsters do not cross picket lines. The Teamsters Union is 100 percent committed to standing with our Longshoremen brothers and sisters until they win the contract they deserve,” O’Brien said.
(NEW YORK) — Borrowers have waited years for a sign of relief from high interest rates for everything from credit card loans to mortgages. The wait may come to an end this week.
Investors widely expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at a meeting on Wednesday. The move would dial back the central bank’s benchmark rate from a 23-year high, reversing some of the rate hikes initiated three years ago in an effort to fight inflation.
Questions, however, remain about the size of the rate cut, what it means for borrowers and how it may impact the 2024 presidential race.
Experts spoke to ABC News about what to know ahead of the potential interest rate cut.
Why is the Fed expected to cut interest rates?
In 2021, the Fed began aggressively raising interest rates in an effort to bring inflation under control. The policy has largely succeeded. Inflation has slowed dramatically from a peak of about 9% in 2022, though it remains slightly higher than the Fed’s target of 2%.
Meanwhile, the job market has slowed. A weaker-than-expected jobs report in each of the last two months has stoked concern among some economists. The unemployment rate has ticked up this year from 3.7% to 4.2%.
Those trends have shifted the Fed’s focus away from controlling inflation and toward ensuring a healthy job market.
In theory, lower interest rates help stimulate economic activity and boost employment; higher interest rates slow economic performance and ease inflation.
“The Fed has been very much guided by data,” Anastassia Fedyk, a professor of finance at Haas Business School at the University of California Berkeley, told ABC News. “ Inflation numbers in the last few months have started looking good, and things are not looking so hot in terms of the jobs reports.”
What will the size of the rate cut be?
The chances of an interest rate cut at the Fed’s meeting next week are all but certain, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment.
Market observers are divided nearly down the middle over whether the Fed will impose its typical cut of a quarter of a percentage point, or opt for a larger half-point cut. The tool estimates the probability of a quarter-point cut at 51% and the odds of a half-point cut at 49%.
“There is that much uncertainty because it seems not all Fed officials are of the same opinion,” Gregory Daco, chief economist at accounting firm EY, told ABC News.
Some Fed policymakers appear to prefer a gradual approach to rate cuts in light of easing inflation and a resilient, albeit weakened, labor market, Daco said. By contrast, others seem to favor a large initial cut that would help avert a more severe job market slowdown.
What would a rate cut mean for credit card fees, mortgage rates?
An interest rate cut would mark a major milestone as the Fed shifts toward a lowering of rates and an easing of costs for borrowers, experts said. Still, they added, the initial rate cut would not substantially lessen loan payments.
“In the grand scheme of things, it’s peanuts,” Daco said.
Nevertheless, some loan relief has already emerged in anticipation of a gradual lowering of interest rates over the coming months.
Mortgage rates fell last week to their lowest level since April 2023, Freddie Mac data showed. The 10-year treasury yield, which helps set the level of many consumer loans, has plummeted nearly a percentage point since July.
“This is a sign of a trend that’s going to start, but it’s going to take a lot longer and be milder than an immediate transition,” Fedyk said.
What would a rate cut mean for the November election?
Typically, lower interest rates make borrowing less expensive for businesses and consumers, propelling companies to invest in new projects and everyday people to stretch for bigger purchases. That all should help propel economic growth and buoy consumer optimism.
In turn, an economic surge could benefit the incumbent party, dispelling concern about a recession and improving the livelihoods of everyday people, some analysts previously told ABC News.
However, the benefits of a forthcoming rate cut could prove more limited, since rate moves take hold after a period of delay that can last months, analysts said.
The most recent Democratic presidential candidate who failed to win reelection, Jimmy Carter, lost his bid amid a historic series of rate hikes at the Fed.
A rate cut would deviate from the policy approach taken by the Fed prior to many recent presidential elections, a Reuters analysis found. Policy rates were left unchanged for six to 12 months before the 2020, 2016, 2012 and 2000 U.S. presidential elections, according to Reuters.
To be sure, the Fed says it bases its decisions on economic conditions and operates as an independent government body.
When asked about the 2024 election at a press conference in Washington, D.C., in December, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, “We don’t think about politics.”
