Federal Reserve set to make interest rate decision days after election of Trump
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(WASHINGTON) — The Federal Reserve on Thursday will announce its latest decision on the direction of interest rates, setting the path for borrowing costs just two days after the victory of President-Elect Donald Trump.
The Fed cut its benchmark interest rate a half of a percentage point in September, dialing back its yearslong fight against inflation and delivering relief for borrowers saddled with high costs.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), a policymaking body at the Fed, has forecast further interest rate cuts.
By the end of 2024, interest rates will fall another half of a percentage point from their current level of between 4.75% and 5%, according to FOMC projections. Interest rates will drop another percentage point over the course of 2025, the projections further indicated.
The central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates by another quarter of a percentage point when it meets on Thursday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment.
In recent months, the U.S. has inched closer to a “soft landing,” in which inflation returns to normal and the economy averts a recession.
Government data released last week showed robust economic growth over a recent three-month period, alongside a continued cooldown of inflation.
U.S. hiring slowed in October, but fallout from hurricanes and labor strikes likely caused an undercount of the nation’s workers, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data on Friday showed.
Since 2021, the Fed has sought to rein in inflation with elevated interest rates. Even after the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest in September, it still stands at a historically high level.
Inflation has cooled dramatically from a peak of about 9% in 2022, hovering right near the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%.
The trajectory of inflation could shift in the coming months. Trump’s proposals of heightened tariffs and the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants are widely expected to raise consumer prices, experts previously told ABC News.
To be sure, the Fed says it bases its decisions on economic conditions and operates as an independent government body.
When asked previously about the 2024 election at a press conference in Washington, D.C., in December, Powell said, “We don’t think about politics.”
The election of Trump appears to have delivered a boost for the stock market. The U.S. stock market soared at the open of trading on Wednesday, just hours after Trump declared victory.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed more than 1,300 points, amounting to a nearly 3% rise in the index. The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq each jumped more than 2%.
Shares of Tesla, the electric vehicle company headed by Trump ally Elon Musk, spiked about 14.5% in early trading on Wednesday.
(SEATTLE) — Tens of thousands of striking Boeing machinists are casting ballots on Monday over whether to approve a contract offer that could end their work stoppage after seven weeks.
The new offer delivers higher pay increases and a bolstered ratification bonus that would deliver each worker $12,000 if the union approves the deal, according to the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM), the union representing 33,000 Boeing workers in Washington, Oregon and California.
The ongoing standoff has strained the finances of both sides. Union members have received $250 per week from a strike fund, beginning in the third week of the work stoppage. That compensation marks a major pay cut for many of the employees.
Boeing and its shareholders have lost about $5.5 billion since the strike began in September, according to an estimate last month from the Anderson Economic Group. Shares of Boeing have plummeted 40% this year but have ticked up slightly over the past month.
Union members resoundingly defeated two previous proposals from Boeing, but the latest offer marks the best deal the workforce is likely to receive, the union said in a public letter to membership on Saturday.
“This is truly the time to lock in these gains and work to build more in future negotiations,” IAM President Jon Holden and the union’s negotiating committee told members. “Allow yourself to capture this win and be proud of your sacrifice.”
The proposed contract would deliver a 38% raise over the four-year duration of the contract, upping the 35% cumulative raise provided in a previous offer overwhelmingly rejected by workers in a vote two weeks ago. Workers had initially sought a 40% cumulative pay increase.
The proposal also calls for hiking Boeing’s contribution to a 401(k) plan, but it declines to fulfill workers’ call for a reinstatement of the company’s defined pension. Workers lost a traditional pension plan in a contract ratified by the union in 2014.
Nearly two thirds of union members rejected the most recent contract offer in a vote last month. The outcome followed the overwhelming defeat of a previous proposal in September, which drew rebuke from more than 90% of union members.
“It’s time we all come back together and focus on rebuilding the business and delivering the world’s best airplanes,” Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg wrote in a memo to employees on Friday. “There are a lot of people depending on us.”
It will take a majority vote of union members to approve the contract offer. If workers ratify the deal, they can return to work as early as Wednesday, the union said.
“The decision to end this strike is right where it needs to be — in the membership’s hands,” Holden and the negotiating committee said in their public letter.
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(NEW YORK) — The debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump on Tuesday opened with a fiery exchange about the economy, an issue that often ranks as the top priority for voters.
The two candidates exchanged sharp barbs over the nation’s recent bout of inflation, Trump’s plan for an escalation of tariffs, and the economic proposals put forward by Harris.
Economists who spoke to ABC News offered an assessment of the attacks leveled by the two candidates, fact-checking major claims and providing context for a full evaluation of their implications.
Here’s what to know about what economists thought of key claims made during the debate:
Harris: “My opponent has a plan that I call the Trump sales tax, which would be a 20% tax on everyday goods that you rely on to get through the month.”
Harris deploys the phrase “Trump sales tax” in reference to Trump’s plan for additional tariffs in a potential second term.
Trump told Fox Business last year that a tax on all imported goods could land at 10%. In April, he proposed a higher tariff of at least 60% on Chinese goods.
Economists who spoke to ABC News confirmed that tariffs are widely thought to raise prices for consumers in the importing country. That’s because foreign producers typically pass along some or all of the tax burden to consumers in the form of higher prices, they said.
“This is generally accepted in economics,” said Stephan Weiler, a professor of economics at Colorado State University and a former Fed research officer.
Economists couldn’t verify the estimate put forward by Harris of a 20% increase on the prices of goods, in part because it’s difficult to predict exactly how foreign manufacturers might respond to tariffs.
In theory, foreign producers that control a given market could offset higher taxes by pushing the costs onto consumers with price increases, Yeva Nersisyan, a professor of economics at Franklin & Marshall College, told ABC News. However, Nersisyan added, companies in competitive industries may face more difficulty doing so.
“It’s hard to say whether that 20% number is accurate,” Nersisyan said.
Trump: “We have inflation like very few people have ever seen before. Probably the worst in our nation’s history.”
Economists who spoke to ABC News rejected the assertion that the nation’s bout of inflation marks its worst ever, noting that the U.S. endured higher price increases as recently as the 1980s.
In addition, economists said Trump overstated the extent to which the Biden administration caused the rapid rise in prices, though they acknowledged that a stimulus measure enacted by Biden may have contributed to some of the inflation.
Like many economic problems, inflation emerged due to an imbalance between supply and demand, economists said.
Hundreds of millions of people across the globe who endured pandemic-era lockdowns replaced restaurant expenditures with online orders of couches and exercise bikes. But the demand for goods and labor far outpaced supply, as COVID-19-related bottlenecks slowed delivery times and infection fears kept production workers on the sidelines.
“The number-one cause of the inflation was a supply adjustment to the COVID shock, particularly coming out of isolation,” Jeffrey Frankel, an economist at Harvard University, told ABC News.
Pandemic-era spending measures enacted by Trump and Biden may also have contributed to the price spike, economists said.
Jason Furman, a professor at Harvard University and former economic adviser to President Barack Obama, estimated that Biden’s American Rescue Plan added between 1 and 4 percentage points to the inflation rate in 2021, Roll Call reported. Michael Strain, of the conservative-leaning American Enterprise Institute, estimated that the legislation added 3 percentage points to inflation.
“One could argue that the COVID-related policies helped heat and possibly overheat the economy,” Weiler said.
Harris: “Donald Trump left us the worst unemployment since the Great Depression … what we have done is clean up Donald Trump’s mess.”
The economy had already emerged from the pandemic-induced recession and begun to recover by the time Biden took office, economists said.
However, the U.S. remained well below pre-pandemic levels in some key measures of economic health, including employment. In turn, economists said, Biden inherited an economy in need of significant rejuvenation.
The unemployment rate peaked at 14.8% in April 2020 when Trump was in office – which was indeed the highest level since the Great Depression, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But unemployment rapidly declined to 6.4% in January 2021 by the time Trump left office, as the economy started to rebalance.
The effort to blame Trump for the spike in unemployment is misleading, since it resulted from a once-in-a-century pandemic, economists said.
“COVID is the tidal wave that overwhelmed the whole story,” Weiler said. “The politics of this is hyperbole.”
The COVID-induced recession lasted two months in the spring of 2020, the shortest U.S. recession ever recorded, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, a non-profit organization that serves as the recognized authority on economic downturns. The speedy recovery was owed in part to trillions in economic stimulus enacted by Trump that March.
“It was very quick and very, very big,” Nersisyan said.
Still, the economy suffered a dearth of jobs and persistent supply blockages when Biden took office, economists said. Over the course of the Biden administration, the labor market expanded at a rapid pace while economic growth quickened. By 2022, the economy had recovered all of the jobs that were lost during the pandemic.
“The recovery from the recession had already begun when Biden took office, but it hadn’t gotten that far,” Frankel said.
Trump: “She doesn’t have a plan. She copied Biden’s plan. And it’s, like, four sentences, like, run-Spot-run. Four sentences that are just, oh, we’ll try and lower taxes.”
Trump sharply criticized Harris for a perceived lack of detailed economic proposals.
Some economists who spoke to ABC News agreed that there was an absence of a complete economic plans from Harris. However, they added, Trump has also failed to provide a detailed set of policy proposals on economic issues.
“I would like to see more detailed policy proposals from both candidates,” Anne Villamil, a professor of economics at the University of Iowa, told ABC News.
“For Harris, I would like to know how her policies would differ from current policies,” Villamil added. “For Trump, I would like to know how his policies would differ from the policies of his previous administration.”
Last month, Harris unveiled economic plans intended to ease inflation, fix the housing market, and slash taxes for middle-income families. The plans include eye-catching proposals such as a $25,000 subsidy for first-time homebuyers and a ban on grocery price gouging, the latter of which had not been put forward by Biden.
Harris has also proposed a 28% tax on long-term capital gains, which clocks in well below the 39.6% tax rate for such income put forward by Biden.
Trump has said he would renew his signature tax-cut measure, which eased taxes for individuals and corporations, while vowing to do away with taxes on tips and Social Security benefits.
“Trump is not one who has a lot of detailed policies himself,” Nersisyan said. “This is not a policy election.”
(NEW YORK) — Inflation is down significantly from its 9.1% pandemic-era peak in 2022, but the cost of food — especially groceries — may continue to puzzle some consumers at checkout lines as new data showed two major categories with slight price increases.
Despite signs of overall inflation cooling compared to a year ago, the current rate of 2.9% remains higher than the Federal Reserve’s target.
The latest Consumer Price Index report for August, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday, showed that while inflation has softened, staples such as groceries are up 1.1% compared to 2023 with higher prices on some common household products like eggs and meat, poultry and fish.
Breaking down the latest inflation data on food and grocery prices
The food index, which is comprised of food away from home and food at home, has increased 2.1% over the last year — and after rising 0.2% in each of the previous two months, was up another 0.1% in August.
There was a slight 0.3% drop last month for takeout and dining, according to the CPI, but food at home remained unchanged.
“Food away from home slowed a little bit at 3.9% year over year, versus that .9% for the food at home category,” Dr. Michael Swanson, Wells Fargo’s Chief Agriculture Economist, told ABC News. “So they’re both slowly kind of trending back down, but still, that’s a big gap and it’s been a pretty persistent gap, which really speaks to the wages at the restaurant level.”
He reminded that “if you can bring yourself to spend a little time prepping food or cooking food at home, you’re going to save yourself a lot of money.”
Grocery prices slowly rise in two major categories, what it means
Food at home rose at a slower pace than overall inflation at .09% over the last year, but two of the six major grocery store food groups — meats, poultry, fish, and eggs — rose last month and by 3.2% over the last 12 months.
The popular animal proteins went up 0.8% in August and eggs increased 4.8%, as dairy and related products increased 0.5% in August.
“When we see a category like eggs where it came in at $3.20 for a dozen at the national number — vs. a year ago in August where it was $2.04 and the answer is, why?” Dr. Swanson posited. “We know that we dealt with avian influenza early in the year, barns are being repopulated, but we’re not right back to where we were previously. So there’s a good, clear story about what happened there.”
“The big dollar category is meat, poultry and eggs — of the food at home category — which had the two worst performers across the entire supermarket,” Swanson said. “It wasn’t really that the ranchers got more money or the wholesalers got more money this month, we saw the retailer spreads move up.”
Food price predictions as we inch towards fall, holidays
Swanson likened food price fluctuations to seasonal weather patterns that yield long term benefits: “For example, how much snow did you get in California and will there be enough melt and water to fill the reservoirs to then be able to grow more strawberries.”
“We’re gonna have the biggest corn and soybean crop ever in the history of United States, according to the USDA,” Swanson said, which he explained has dropped the prices “way down from a year ago.” He continued, “that’s really important to the consumer ultimately, because that’s what impacts [the price of] chickens, beef and everything else — so there’s good news, but it’s not here just yet.”
How grocers are meeting shopper demand for lower prices
“No retailer simply gives you money, if they’re going to give you lower prices or better value, it’s because they went out and fought with their suppliers to get it for you,” he explained.
“What we’re seeing in that universe of wholesalers and food manufacturers, they’re starting to get a lot more pressure from the retailers to say, ‘Help me out here, because I need to do more for our shoppers,'” Swanson said. “It’s a slow process, but it’s been a complete tide shift in mentality and so all the retailers, to some degree have gone back to say, ‘You just have to do better than that.'”
Swanson found in looking at the Federal Reserve Board which tracks capacity utilization in food manufacturing, that “during the peak of the crisis — they didn’t have any spare capacity, so they weren’t interested in negotiating with food retailers like Walmart.”
Since that’s no longer the case, Swanson said we’re starting to see “a little bit more and more slack” which makes wholesalers “more susceptible to arm twisting from the food retailers.”
