Harris, Walz to make first joint campaign appearance in Philadelphia
(PHILADELPHIA) — Vice President Kamala Harris and her newly announced presidential running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, are slated to make their first campaign appearance together on Tuesday evening in Philadelphia, before a large crowd.
Hundreds of supporters were waiting in lines outside the Liacouras Center at Temple University for the event, which is scheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET.
Walz and Harris are expected to highlight their contrasts to former president Donald Trump and Sen. JD Vance.
Vance held a rally in the city earlier in the day.
Tuesday’s Harris-Walz event kicks off a five-day campaign road trip that will visit seven crucial swing states.
The vice president and Walz are scheduled to visit Eau Claire, Wisconsin; Detroit, Michigan; Durham, North Carolina; Savannah, Georgia; Phoenix, Arizona; and Las Vegas this week.
(WASHINGTON) — While polling sites around the country are gearing up for huge voter turnout on Election Day, data and experts predict that a majority of the votes that will decide this year’s key races will be cast months before.
In fact, many of those votes could be cast in the next few weeks.
Analysts who have been studying early-voting trends say mail-in balloting and voting done at early opening polling sites will not only be a crucial indicator for this year’s races, but also future voting methods adopted by the country.
Early in-person voting options are available for almost all registered voters in 47 states with some allowing voters to cast their ballot as early as September, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures, which tracks election laws across the country.
Michael McDonald, a professor of political science at the University of Florida who helps run the school’s election lab, told ABC News that early voting exploded during the 2020 election and its effectiveness has reshaped the way the electorate and campaigns navigate the election.
“People find it easier to navigate and return the ballot at their convenience and it gives them more chances. They’re more likely to cast a ballot with those options,” he said.
How and where voters can cast a ballot early
In addition to offering voters a chance to cast their ballot through the mail, many states offer voters two ways of casting a ballot in person: either dropping off their absentee ballot at an election office or site, known as in-person absentee voting; or at a polling machine polling place that is open prior to Election Day.
As of 2024, 22 states offer all voters who vote via absentee the option to turn in their ballot in person early, according to NCSL data.
Alabama and New Hampshire offer no in-person early voting options — something the state’s election officials have not opted to do. Mississippi only offers in-person absentee to voters who meet specific criteria such as a physical disability, or proof that they will not be in the state on Election Day, such as military members.
Twenty-seven states and the District of Columbia give voters both in-person absentee and early in-person poll site options, NCSL data shows.
Eight states — California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Vermont and Hawaii — and D.C. have adopted all-mail ballots and allow voters to cast their ballots in person before Election Day. With this process, states mail ballots to all registered voters and they can send it back, drop it off in-person absentee or ballot box, or simply choose to vote in a polling site either early or on Election Day.
Some election offices will offer voters a chance to submit their paper ballots in person as early as mid-September.
In Pennsylvania, some voters may be able to cast absentee ballots in person at their county’s executive office starting Sept. 16, which is the date for when counties must begin processing applications for mail-in or absentee ballots. The Pennsylvania Department of State told ABC News, however, that counties might not necessarily have the ballots ready by that date.
Rise in popularity
Charles Stewart, the director of Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s election data science lab, told ABC News that voting data has shown a gradual increase in votes cast before Election Day over nearly three decades.
In fact, during the 2020 election, more than 69% of votes cast in the election were done through either mail-in ballots or early in-person voting, according to election data. By comparison, only 40% voted early in the 2016 election and 33% in the 2012 election, the data showed.
The data did not indicate how many mail ballots were turned in person.
Stewart noted that the pandemic was a factor behind the 2020 surge in early voting, and even though there was a decrease in early voting numbers during the 2022 midterms, there was still a jump in the number of people who cast their ballots either through the mail or at an early-voting site compared to previous midterms.
“If you extend the trend line and extend it to 2022, there is only a little bit more voting by mail,” he said. “That tells me that voters have, on aggregate, returned to patterns we saw before 2020, which is that of a slowly growing reliance on convenience voting methods.”
The extra convenience isn’t the only incentive that is moving more voters to early voting, particularly mail-in ballots, according to Stewart.
Stewart said that several studies that have been published about voting behaviors have shown that voters who cast their ballot through the mail are thinking about their choices “more deeply and thoroughly.”
“I heard it from a voter the other day who said they appreciate being able to lay the ballot on the table and do the research on the issues and the candidates,” he said.
The enthusiasm has also had ripple effects, according to research conducted by McDonald.
McDonald said that data has shown that the states that opted to give all registered voters their ballot in the mail, such as Colorado, Washington and Oregon, saw the highest turnout rates in the country in 2020.
“In the early states that opted [into] mail balloting, places like Oregon and Washington, they’ve done satisfaction surveys and voters there love it, both Democrats and Republicans,” he said.
A boon for voters, election offices and campaigns
Election experts said that 2020’s jump in early voting helped to decrease long lines on Election Day at a time when the pandemic required smaller indoor crowds and social distancing.
Even though the need to decrease crowds has lessened, McDonald stressed there is still a need for “safety valves” when it comes to Election Day lines.
“It means if someone has a problem … and they try to catch their problem earlier, they have more time to rectify that problem,” he said, citing examples such as an error on their form or improper voter ID.
McDonald also cited the sudden snowstorm that hit northern Arizona in November 2022 as a major obstacle that voters and election offices faced when it came to Election Day voting.
“These are the things that can happen and campaigns kind of know they shouldn’t rely too much on Election Day because there could be things that go wrong,” he said.
Christopher Mann, the research director for the non-profit group, The Center for Election Innovation & Research, told ABC News that early voting also gives election office teams, many of whom are understaffed and underfunded, extra time to handle the large number of ballots that come through during presidential cycles.
“They can move more people around during those early weeks, especially on the weekends,” he said.
At the same time, early voting has reshaped how campaigns are conducted.
Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden pushed for their debates to take place prior to October because of early voting. Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are scheduled to debate on Sept. 10 on ABC News.
Aside from the campaign trail, McDonald said that early voting also affects the campaign staffers on the ground who receive voter information from election offices.
“Then the campaigns can say, ‘OK this voter already voted, I don’t need to call them or mail them something. I can scratch them off the list,” he said.
Trump’s false claims on early voting shift dynamics
In both the 2020 election and in this year’s contest, Trump has been vocal about his distrust in early voting, falsely claiming it is not secure and pushed for only voting on Election Day.
Despite appearing in a video at the Republican National Convention encouraging Republicans to vote by mail or early if available, Trump has been criticizing early voting at his events.
“We should have one-day voting. We should have paper ballots, we should have voter ID, and we should have proof of citizenship,” he told reporters at a news conference last month.
McDonald said Trump’s rhetoric led to a major shift in the 2020 election as the number of Republicans who voted by mail dropped compared to Democrats. Prior to 2020, more Republicans cast their vote in the mail, according to McDonald.
“We can see that those patterns really haven’t restored themselves [to] pre-pandemic,” he said.
The election experts stressed that there is no evidence of fraud when it comes to mail-in ballots and, in fact, showed there is no correlation between the number of early votes cast and the outcome of the election.
“If you look at states where half of the ballots were issued before Election Day, Trump won half of that vote,” Mann said.
The experts say the election data is showing an upward trend of more voters opting to vote early versus on Election Day, with mail-in voting seeing the biggest increases, and they predict more states will expand those early voting offerings.
Stewart noted that the momentum is still there as several states failed to pass measures in the last four years that would have restricted early-voting options, specifically ending pandemic-era rules that allowed for no-excuse absentee.
Ultimately, Stewart contended that giving voters as many options to safely and properly cast their ballot leads not only to more convenience, but a stronger electorate.
“I would encourage voters to think about their own lives, their own habits, their own values and choose their mode that is keeping with all of those things,” he said.
(WASHINGTON) — Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump will need to navigate the pitfall-filled debate of their political lives on Tuesday as each tries to persuade millions of voters and viewers that they’re the one best suited to be president.
Harris, whose wave of momentum has brought Democrats back to a neck-and-neck presidential race, will have to prosecute the case against Trump while also laying out how her agenda could help the country — particularly beleaguered middle- and working-class Americans.
Trump, meanwhile, has the task of casting his record on the economy and immigration as superior to Harris’ while avoiding distracting personal attacks on Harris.
The ABC News presidential debate will take place on Sept. 10 at 9 p.m. ET and air on ABC and stream on ABC News Live, Disney+ and Hulu.
The showdown in Philadelphia is taking place months after the last debate ended President Joe Biden’s reelection bid, sending Harris rushing to stand up an eleventh-hour campaign and Trump scrambling to figure out how to negatively define a new opponent voters are less familiar with.
“I think there’s an outsized expectation of ‘gosh, the last guy dropped out, let’s watch it.’ So, I think that there’s a lot more at stake than normally I would ever say is at stake,” said Sean Spicer, Trump’s first White House press secretary.
“I’m not a huge believer that debates move the needle that much,” he added, “but I do think that because of the nontraditional nature of what’s happening right now, there’s going to be an outsized degree of attention.”
Democrats who spoke to ABC News said that Harris has two main goals: affirm to voters that she is ready to lead the country and the free world and to describe in more detail what policies she’d pursue as president.
Some Democratic sources said that voters could be concerned by Harris’ rapid ascension as the Democrats’ nominee and — unjustly, they said — her gender when thinking of the kind of president they’d feel comfortable with.
A strong debate performance could allay worries and cement the momentum she’s enjoyed to date.
“I think she has to answer the overarching question, which is, can she lead the country, and what type of president will President Harris be? People just want to be comfortable in that decision,” said Bakari Sellers, a prominent Harris ally. “I don’t want her to be timid at all. Just be yourself, be comfortable, answer questions and turn around and hammer him.”
Trump has sought to cast Harris as “dangerous” by painting her as a “California liberal” who was soft on crime and generally out of step, referencing her time as state attorney general and senator and relying on voters’ perceptions of the progressive bastion to fill in the blanks.
That’s something Harris could use the debate stage to push back on, possibly repeating parts of her stump speech in which she details her efforts as California attorney general combating transnational gangs operating across the southern border.
One source familiar with the Harris campaign’s thinking said the vice president should “clearly [stake] out where she stands on issues like the border and crime and [talk] about her record on those issues as a prosecutor and attorney general to demonstrate that the portrayals are misrepresenting her actual views on those issues.”
That defense will likely be complemented by an effort to highlight Harris’ economic policies, which she’s recently begun to roll out, to also address voter worries about inflation.
Harris has introduced plans to make it easier to buy a house and start a small business, while, in a nod to the business community, saying she’d also increase the capital gains tax by less than Biden has proposed.
“It’s an important opportunity for her to continue to lay out her economic vision, to demonstrate both through talking about her experience and her vision, that she will be a strong leader, as she has said, for all Americans,” one source close to Harris’ team said.
However, Harris is facing off against maybe the most unpredictable non-traditional figures in modern politics, and Trump is likely to throw in curveballs that could take the vice president off her talking points.
Trump has already launched a fusillade of personal attacks, including questioning Harris’ race and intelligence and highlighting vulgar suggestions about sexual acts.
So far, Harris has barely responded, casting the barbs as the “same old, tired playbook.”
Now, some allies would like to see her fight back.
“I think there is a mechanism whereby you stand up to bullies and you call it out for what it is and simply say that, ‘while the former president is using racism as political currency, I represent a new future, one where we don’t divide people and use such degrading terms to anyone,’ Sellers said. “I would look him dead in the eye and say, ‘former President Trump, we are better than you right now.'”
Others weren’t so sure.
“I would ignore what are likely to be rude, disrespectful behaviors from Trump, and stay focused on the substance, because by doing so, it will further highlight for people just how disgusting his behavior can be,” said the source close to Harris’ team.
Republicans, for their part, hope to avoid that scenario altogether.
GOP operatives who spoke to ABC News said Trump should focus on policy contrasts, boasting that he has the edge on issues like inflation and immigration and can try to pin her down on her policy reversals on things like fracking – while he himself searches for consistent stances on issues like abortion.
“He’s not going to have many other windows where Kamala Harris is going to be asked tough questions and tough follow up questions, and so he needs to keep his responses and very focused on her issue positions that have come out of her mouth and make her reconcile what she’s saying now with what she said in 2020,” said GOP strategist Brad Todd.
“When she says, ‘I’m not for banning fracking,’ then he needs to say, “so, you wrong before? What caused you to believe that your previous position was wrong? Or are you just worried about Pennsylvania'” Todd said, referencing the swing state’s economic reliance on the practice.
Trump has at times knocked leaned into that message, knocking her promises for “day one” by noting she’s already been in office for almost four years serving a president facing severe disapproval ratings when he dropped out of the race.
It’s unclear precisely how effective that tie could be — an ABC News/Washington Post poll last month showed that only 11% of voters said Harris had a great deal of influence over economic policy, and just 15% said the same of immigration policy. But Republicans urged Trump to hammer the connection.
“For him to be viewed as having a successful debate, he has to continue that assault,” said one former campaign aide in touch with Trump’s current team. “She’s the vice president United States seeking the second term of Joe Biden. We can make that case.”
Still, Trump has a proven penchant for veering off into unrelated attacks, whether it be against opponents or moderators — a strategy that has helped him on the stump but one that could backfire on Tuesday.
“If he takes the bait and makes some kind of one-off comment about her and calls her names, I think that’s going to be the story the next day,” Spicer said.
“He’s a field player and he’s an improviser, and that’s what’s made him effective as a communicator,” Todd added. “But this is a time for discipline.”
(MOSCOW) — Ukrainian forces have yet to set up defensive lines as they continue their operation into the Kursk region of Russia, a U.S. official told ABC News on Wednesday.
While this might reflect Ukrainian confidence in further success for the offensive, there is concern among some American officials that failure to dig in soon could leave its troops vulnerable to a coming Russian counterattack.
“Russia didn’t take it very serious at first,” the U.S. official said. On Tuesday, Pentagon spokesman Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said the U.S. had seen only a “small number” of Russian forces heading to Kursk.
But the U.S. now sees a significant second wave of Russian troops preparing to reinforce the region, coming from positions in both Ukraine and Russia, according to the official, who said some units could arrive within days, with the majority of reinforcements expected within two weeks.
It could be a costly tradeoff for Ukraine to seek incremental gains in the region at the expense of shoring up its defenses, according to Mark Cancian, former Marine colonel and senior adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“They should draw the most defensible line inside this enclave and dig in … and then try to hold that,” Cancian said.
This advice is in line with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s stated goal of creating a “buffer zone” inside Russia.
“When you’re on the attack, you tend to take more casualties,” Cancian said. “And it would be fine if that opens up the front for some follow-on movement, but that’s doesn’t appear to be what’s going on. It looks like they’re just sort of plodding forward.”
Despite the danger posed by incoming Russian forces, and risks of being overextended, having foreword units cut off, or leaving other areas of the front undermanned, experts say Ukraine’s initiative in Kursk has already succeeded in forcing Russia to make hard decisions about how to allocate its finite resources; in boosting confidence in the Ukrainian military both domestically and with key allies; and in obtaining territory that could be used as bargaining leverage later on.
The Kremlin was by all accounts taken off guard by Ukraine’s incursion, but Kyiv might itself have been surprised by its quick gains.
“It was initially intended for psychological purposes, similar to the Doolittle Raid after Pearl Harbor, but it has evolved based on its success,” said Mick Mulroy, an ABC News contributor who served as a CIA paramilitary officer and deputy assistant secretary of defense.
Ukrainian forces have now been in the Kursk region for more than two weeks.
“Over the next couple days, we’ll see what the Ukrainians do and whether they keep this strategy of just nibbling away, whether they go on to the defensive, whether they try to make a big attack, which I think is unlikely, but not impossible,” Cancian said.